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Marcus Webb

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Macro
macro
long-term
7/10

The Bear Case for US Treasuries Nobody Wants to Hear

January 25, 20261,890 reads47 comments

Fiscal deficits are structural, not cyclical. Foreign buyers are diversifying away. The bond market is mispricing sovereign risk for the first time in a generation. Here's what that means for your portfolio.

Quick Take

US Treasury bonds may no longer be the 'risk-free' asset investors assume. Rising structural deficits, declining foreign demand, and inflation persistence create a bear case that most portfolios aren't positioned for.

#bonds
#treasuries
#fiscal-deficit
#macro
#risk

Investment Angles

$TBT
long
6/10
medium-term

Short long-term treasuries as rates reprice higher

$GLD
long
8/10
long-term

Gold as alternative reserve asset as Treasury confidence erodes

This content represents the published opinion of Marcus Webb and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

Discussion(47)

You
AR
Alex Rivera4h ago

Really well-argued thesis. The supply/demand data alone makes this compelling. I've been building a position in NEM for similar reasons.

JH
Jessica Huang2h ago

What's the biggest risk to this thesis? Seems like a sudden dollar strengthening or a deflationary shock could unwind the trade quickly.

MT
Michael Torres45m ago

I'd add that the geopolitical angle is underappreciated. Central bank gold buying isn't just about returns — it's about de-dollarization. That's a structural, not cyclical, shift.

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